{
  "buildVersion": "1.00",
  "generatedAt": "2026-07-12T17:04:08+08:00",
  "modelStatus": "design_only_publication_blocked",
  "layers": [
    "historical_constituency_baseline",
    "statewide_environment_distribution",
    "regional_movement",
    "constituency_residual",
    "candidate_effects_with_shrinkage",
    "origin_specific_vote_transfers",
    "coalition_cohesion_latent_variables",
    "latent_turnout",
    "rejected_ballots_and_valid_votes",
    "structured_news_events"
  ],
  "simulation": {
    "method": "correlated_monte_carlo",
    "status": "not_run_for_public_forecast",
    "requiredOutputs": [
      "representative_joint_outcome",
      "means_medians",
      "80_95_intervals",
      "government_probability",
      "two_thirds_probability",
      "hung_probability",
      "per_seat_probabilities",
      "modal_map",
      "vote_reconciliation",
      "sensitivity"
    ]
  },
  "qualityGates": [
    {
      "field": "verified_state_seat_count",
      "status": "PASS",
      "value": 36,
      "source": "spr_schedule"
    },
    {
      "field": "unique_seat_codes",
      "status": "PASS",
      "value": "N01-N36 exactly once"
    },
    {
      "field": "majority_threshold",
      "status": "PASS",
      "value": 19
    },
    {
      "field": "official_2026_statewide_electorate",
      "status": "PASS",
      "value": 889490,
      "breakdown": {
        "ordinary": 867151,
        "military_and_spouses": 16884,
        "police": 5455
      },
      "source": "spr_schedule"
    },
    {
      "field": "official_2026_electorate_by_constituency",
      "status": "FAIL_BLOCKING",
      "value": null,
      "reason": "Per-DUN April 2026 DPPR has not been imported from an authoritative source. Do not apportion the statewide total."
    },
    {
      "field": "official_2026_nomination_slate",
      "status": "FAIL_BLOCKING",
      "value": null,
      "reason": "Nomination is scheduled for 18 July 2026. Pre-nomination candidate allocations are not the official slate."
    },
    {
      "field": "historical_2023_statewide_electorate_reconciliation",
      "status": "PASS",
      "value": 864425
    },
    {
      "field": "historical_2023_vote_reconciliation",
      "status": "PASS",
      "value": {
        "ballotsIssued": 590826,
        "ballotsNotReturned": 1144,
        "validVotes": 582455,
        "rejectedVotes": 7227,
        "equation": "valid + rejected + not returned = ballots issued"
      }
    },
    {
      "field": "historical_2023_seat_winners",
      "status": "PASS",
      "value": {
        "PH": 17,
        "BN": 14,
        "PN": 5,
        "total": 36
      }
    },
    {
      "field": "incumbent_list",
      "status": "PASS",
      "value": "36 records cross-checked against official state portal and 2023 result"
    },
    {
      "field": "parliamentary_historical_results",
      "status": "WARNING",
      "value": null,
      "reason": "Not yet imported into canonical records."
    },
    {
      "field": "boundary_harmonisation",
      "status": "WARNING",
      "value": null,
      "reason": "Historical same-name records are not yet boundary-harmonised."
    },
    {
      "field": "demographics",
      "status": "WARNING",
      "value": null,
      "reason": "Not imported until reliable legally usable source is verified."
    },
    {
      "field": "opinion_polls",
      "status": "WARNING",
      "value": null,
      "reason": "No qualifying constituency-level poll dataset found in initial audit."
    },
    {
      "field": "multilingual_news_events",
      "status": "WARNING",
      "value": 0,
      "reason": "Coverage inventory exists, but no synthetic placeholders are created."
    },
    {
      "field": "mandatory_blind_backtests",
      "status": "FAIL_BLOCKING",
      "value": null,
      "reason": "Baseline comparisons and calibration tests are not completed."
    }
  ]
}